New Delhi: Call it the Trump effect. There's been a 9% slump in Indian passport holders travelling to the US in the January-March period from the year earlier, according to data from the International Trade Administration of the US. There's an almost identical drop, 8.9%, in those returning from the US.
Experts said Indians are thinking hard about travelling stateside while those staying there are not wanting to risk travelling back home during holiday breaks and being denied re-entry, owing to the uncertainty created by the Donald Trump administration's hardline anti-immigration stance. On the other hand, for those willing to take a chance, tickets are cheaper.
Airline executives said that while there has been a gradual slide in occupancy on flights to and from the US, the decline has been sharper since March after US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stepped up raids, detentions rose and visas were cancelled amid deportations. US customs officials can examine the laptops and phones of arriving passengers for anything they consider incriminating and deny entry or worse.
"The decline has been primarily because a lot of Indian students who used to travel home during their term breaks are not doing it this year," an airline executive said. "These people also used to return, driving traffic, along with many senior citizens who travel to the US to visit their families. There has been a decline of around 5-6% in occupancy. Airlines are also reducing fares to fill up planes There has been a decline of around 5-6% in occupancy. Airlines are also reducing fares to fill up planes."
Tellingly, of an estimated 4,000 visa revocation notices sent in the last two months, half went to Indian students, according to estimates by the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA). The Indian government has said it's raised the issue with the Trump administration.
India-US bookings in the March quarter for travel in May, June and July have nosedived 11.64% from the year earlier, according to data analytics firm Cirium. A Cirium spokesperson said the data is indicative as it covers tickets bought through online travel agencies but doesn't count those booked with airlines directly.
Airlines are operating 1,950 flights from India to the US this summer compared with 1,388 in winter and 1,936 flights last summer, according to OAG, an air travel intelligence company. More than 90% of this summer's flights will be operated by Air India to cities such as New York, Newark, Washington, San Francisco and Chicago. The airline had also been planning flights to Los Angeles and Dallas.
To be sure, travel industry officials said that the decline is likely to be short term rather than permanent as the fundamentals of the market remain strong due to the large number of Indians staying or studying in the US.
"I don't think there have been any major cancellations yet--people are wary and they seem to be waiting and watching. If it is not urgent, they will probably postpone travel to the US," said Ajay Prakash, vice chairman, Federation Of Associations in Indian Tourism & Hospitality, a group which counts tour operators, travel agents and hotels as its members.
Outgoing civil aviation secretary Vumlunmang Vualnam said on Thursday that the Indian aviation and travel industry is resilient and he expected that it would be able to overcome these temporary challenges.
"I don't think it has had a notable impact yet but there could be a very marginal influence on Indian travellers going to the US," said Sunil Kumar R, president Travel Agents Association of India. "There are so many Indians whose families are stationed in the US. Indians love spending time with their kith and kin."
Experts said Indians are thinking hard about travelling stateside while those staying there are not wanting to risk travelling back home during holiday breaks and being denied re-entry, owing to the uncertainty created by the Donald Trump administration's hardline anti-immigration stance. On the other hand, for those willing to take a chance, tickets are cheaper.
Airline executives said that while there has been a gradual slide in occupancy on flights to and from the US, the decline has been sharper since March after US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stepped up raids, detentions rose and visas were cancelled amid deportations. US customs officials can examine the laptops and phones of arriving passengers for anything they consider incriminating and deny entry or worse.
"The decline has been primarily because a lot of Indian students who used to travel home during their term breaks are not doing it this year," an airline executive said. "These people also used to return, driving traffic, along with many senior citizens who travel to the US to visit their families. There has been a decline of around 5-6% in occupancy. Airlines are also reducing fares to fill up planes There has been a decline of around 5-6% in occupancy. Airlines are also reducing fares to fill up planes."
Tellingly, of an estimated 4,000 visa revocation notices sent in the last two months, half went to Indian students, according to estimates by the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA). The Indian government has said it's raised the issue with the Trump administration.
India-US bookings in the March quarter for travel in May, June and July have nosedived 11.64% from the year earlier, according to data analytics firm Cirium. A Cirium spokesperson said the data is indicative as it covers tickets bought through online travel agencies but doesn't count those booked with airlines directly.
Airlines are operating 1,950 flights from India to the US this summer compared with 1,388 in winter and 1,936 flights last summer, according to OAG, an air travel intelligence company. More than 90% of this summer's flights will be operated by Air India to cities such as New York, Newark, Washington, San Francisco and Chicago. The airline had also been planning flights to Los Angeles and Dallas.
To be sure, travel industry officials said that the decline is likely to be short term rather than permanent as the fundamentals of the market remain strong due to the large number of Indians staying or studying in the US.
"I don't think there have been any major cancellations yet--people are wary and they seem to be waiting and watching. If it is not urgent, they will probably postpone travel to the US," said Ajay Prakash, vice chairman, Federation Of Associations in Indian Tourism & Hospitality, a group which counts tour operators, travel agents and hotels as its members.
Outgoing civil aviation secretary Vumlunmang Vualnam said on Thursday that the Indian aviation and travel industry is resilient and he expected that it would be able to overcome these temporary challenges.
"I don't think it has had a notable impact yet but there could be a very marginal influence on Indian travellers going to the US," said Sunil Kumar R, president Travel Agents Association of India. "There are so many Indians whose families are stationed in the US. Indians love spending time with their kith and kin."
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