Water wars? How India is planning to divert water from Indus river system, leave Pakistan high and dry

NEW DELHI: India is considering a significant escalation in its use of water from the Indus river system, a move that could drastically reduce the water supply to Pakistan. This development comes amid heightened tensions following a deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam on April 22 by Pakistan-backed terrorists.

Shorlty after the attack, India had suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark water-sharing agreement between the two countries that has historically regulated the use of the Indus river and its tributaries.

Despite the ceasefire agreement reached after intense fighting in early May, the Indus Waters Treaty remains suspended, and India's water projects are moving forward, according to a report by Reuters.

Experts note that while large-scale infrastructure projects take years to complete, the political message and initial impacts on water flow are already significant. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for water to become a new flashpoint in the already tense India-Pakistan relationship.

Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allocates the waters of six rivers between India and Pakistan. India controls the eastern rivers — Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi — while Pakistan has rights over the western rivers —Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. Under the treaty, India is allowed limited use of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower projects but must not significantly affect the water flow to Pakistan.


Following the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, in which 26 civilians were killed, India suspended its adherence to the treaty, citing Pakistan's involvement in cross-border terrorism.

External affairs minister S. Jaishankar has made it clear that the treaty will remain "in abeyance" until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably stops cross-border terrorism. He also emphasised that India is willing to engage with Pakistan only on issues related to terrorism and the return of illegally occupied territories in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), rejecting broader talks on Kashmir or the treaty itself for the time being.
What India is planning

In a strategic move, India is accelerating plans to increase its water extraction from the Indus river system, particularly focusing on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, which are primarily allocated to Pakistan under the treaty.

One of the most impactful projects under consideration is the expansion of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab river.

Originally built in the 19th century and currently about 60 kilometers long, the plan is to extend this canal to 120 kilometers.

This expansion would increase India’s capacity to divert water from 40 cubic meters per second to 150 cubic meters per second, significantly reducing the flow of water into Pakistan’s Punjab province, a key agricultural region.

Additionally, India is exploring other irrigation and hydropower projects that could further reduce water availability downstream. Government documents reviewed by Reuters indicate proposals to potentially redirect water from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers into rivers within northern Indian states, further limiting water flow into Pakistan.

These projects include the construction of dams capable of storing large quantities of water-something India has not previously done on the western rivers under the treaty’s restrictions.

Impact on Pakistan
Pakistan relies on the Indus river system for approximately 80% of its agriculture and much of its hydropower generation. Any substantial reduction in water flow could have severe consequences for Pakistan’s food security, economy, and energy supply.

Islamabad has already reported a 90% drop in water levels at a critical receiving point following Indian maintenance work on Indus projects, providing a glimpse of the pressure it might face if India proceeds with its plans.

Pakistan has condemned India’s suspension of the treaty and warned that attempts to halt or divert water flows would be considered an "act of war."

The Indus Waters Treaty has long been regarded as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements globally, having survived multiple wars and ongoing tensions.